The U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani was a bold and controversial move but its ripple effects extend far beyond the Middle East. In fact, the consequences may be most profound in a place not directly involved: North Korea.
For Pyongyang, the U.S. strike reinforces a belief it has held for decades that nuclear weapons are the ultimate shield against foreign intervention.
Nuclear Weapons as Survival Insurance
North Korea has long viewed nuclear arms not just as military tools, but as essential to regime survival. Events like the toppling of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi both of whom gave up or lost their weapons capabilities — serve as cautionary tales. Now, Iran’s experience adds another data point to Pyongyang’s calculus.
Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief under the 2015 nuclear deal. Yet, after the U.S. withdrew from that deal in 2018, Iran found itself again in Washington’s crosshairs culminating in Soleimani’s killing in 2020. To North Korea, this sequence sends a simple but chilling message: giving up nuclear ambitions invites danger, not safety.
Broken Promises Breed Distrust
Donald Trump’s presidency saw a rare moment in U.S.-North Korea relations — high-profile summits with Kim Jong-un. While those talks were historic in optics, they failed to produce a lasting agreement. Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran deal, paired with the Soleimani strike, further deepens North Korea’s suspicion that American promises can be easily reversed or ignored.
This perception makes any future diplomatic deal harder to achieve. North Korea will likely demand stronger guarantees perhaps ones Washington is unwilling to give.
The Cost of Diplomacy Gone Wrong
Rather than encouraging disarmament or dialogue, the U.S. strike on Iran could have the opposite effect on other adversarial regimes. North Korea, already wary of U.S. intentions, now sees another example of what happens to nations that trust American diplomacy without holding onto real leverage.
That leverage, for Kim Jong-un, is the country’s nuclear program. It’s now more than a bargaining chip, it’s insurance.
Hardening of Positions
Instead of moving closer to negotiations, Pyongyang may double down on weapons testing, military displays, and inflammatory rhetoric. U.S. moves that are meant to deter could end up entrenching North Korea’s commitment to its nuclear path.
In their view, the lesson is clear: states that give up their deterrent are at the mercy of outside powers, while those that maintain nuclear capability have a fighting chance at autonomy and survival.
Conclusion:
While the strike on Soleimani was aimed at weakening Iran’s influence, it may have strengthened North Korea’s resolve to remain nuclear-armed at all costs. Rather than pushing for disarmament, U.S. actions may be convincing Pyongyang that survival lies not in peace deals but in firepower.